Between Baghdad’s anticipation and Ankara’s ambitions … Reading of the possible developments after the referendum …

It is possible to expand the strategy of the military and intelligence insurance for the Turkish national security at the expense of Iraqi territories with the expectation of redistribution of the Turkish forces in the areas of interest and security activity at the northern Iraq under the name of “War against terrorism” , reinforcing the Turkish military presence in “Kani Masi” base in Al-Amiriyah in addition to the Zilkin camp in Bashiqa, and keeping the Turkish forces mobilized in the Silopi area near the Iraqi Turkish border to continue the political and military pressure and hinting for the intervention in Tal Afar city and the Turkmen situation in Kirkuk and Mosul.

Turkey is supported in all this by two main factors; the results of referendum and expansion of the president’s authorities and the availability of logistical platforms and facilities by the Kurdistan Region leaning on political, economic and security cooperation between “Erbil – Ankara” in addition to the presence of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PPK) that is stationed in Sinjar Mountain and several other areas which forms a provocation and a headache for the Turkish leadership which classifies it as a “terrorist organization” and considers it a threat to its national security, all the while taking into account the situation of polarization and conflict over regional dominance between the two neighbors Iran and Turkey, which puts Iraq on the regional and international contact lines between them and raises tension and escalation in the region which requires political wisdom and sound geopolitical intelligence to deal with the crisis and its possible consequences.

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